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It’s gone quiet, hey. The N2’s emptier, the coffee spots in George have free tables at 9am, and the enquiries have thinned right out since the school holidays ended. Winter on the Garden Route. The whales are back. The tourists aren’t.

And round about now, every year, the same low worry starts up. Is it me? Did I drop the ball somewhere? Usually not. It’s June.

The winter dip isn’t a surprise. It’s the most scheduled event in your business — you just don’t treat it like one.

Last winter already told you how this one goes

Here’s the two-minute version, before you shut the laptop tonight.

Open last year’s numbers. Bank statement, invoicing app, the shoebox, whatever you’ve got. Look at June, July and August, and find the single worst week — the one where almost nothing came in. Write that number down.

That’s your floor. Not a guess. The actual amount your business ran on through its quietest stretch last year. Most founders have never looked at it on purpose. They lived through it twice and called it bad luck both times.

Once you’ve seen the floor, it stops being scary and starts being useful. If that worst week doesn’t cover the rent, the salaries and the debit orders, that’s worth knowing now — with a few weeks to do something about it — not the night before payday.

The slump has spikes in it

Quiet doesn’t mean dead, though. The Knysna Oyster Festival runs from the 3rd to the 12th of July this year — ten days that pull thousands of people into town for the forest marathon, the markets, the food. Whale season’s already going and runs through October. There’s money moving out there, even now.

So mark it. If you sell anything a visitor might want — a meal, a bed, a cut and colour, a guided walk, your product stacked on a market table — that festival week belongs on your calendar in red, with a plan attached. Not spotted on the Wednesday it kicks off.

Plan to the floor. Aim at the spikes.

Two minutes tonight:

• Last year’s June–August figures — find the worst week. That’s your floor.
• This year’s known busy dates, on the calendar in red. Oyster Fest, long weekends, the whale crowd.
• One thing you’ll do differently in the slow weeks. Just one.

You can’t make June busier by fretting about it in June. But you can stop it catching you the same way it did last year.

Reply with your floor — the worst week you actually found when you looked back. I reckon half of you have never checked. Happy to be proven wrong.