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It’s quiet this time of year, so you’ve got time. Time to redo the float, finally answer that one email. And, if you’re honest, time to stand at your own window and run the numbers on the shop down the road.

Their lot looked full on Saturday. Yours didn’t. So now there’s a figure stuck in your head that you didn’t choose and can’t actually check.

You already know this, but it slips away by Monday. You’re reading their day from the pavement. You can see the cars. You can’t see the overdraft.

A busy Saturday hides more than it shows

Full tables could mean a roaring weekend. They could also mean a two-for-one they’re running at a loss to keep the lights on, or a tour bus that won’t come through again. From across the road you’ve no idea what it cost them to put that crowd on — whether they made money that day or just looked like they did. Busy is a costume.

And the quiet truth about small business here is harder than a full car park lets on. An Absa and SACCI survey of South African small businesses last year found six in ten were running on weak or critical cash flow, and barely 3% called theirs strong. So the lively-looking place you keep measuring yourself against is, on the odds, more likely to be sweating its bank balance than winning.

What a good Saturday doesn’t tell you:

• what margin they actually kept once the discount came off
• what they owe SARS at month-end
• whether the owner paid themselves a cent
• how well they slept on Sunday night

You’re stacking your whole messy inside against their tidy outside. It was never a fair fight, and you’re the one who set it up.

Race last month, not next door

There’s only one set of books you can actually read, and it’s yours. And in a slow winter, with fewer customers in the door to keep your eyes busy, the itch to look sideways only gets louder.

You can’t see their numbers. But you can see exactly how many regulars came back this month against last, what your real cash gap is, whether June beat May. Dull, close-to-home figures — and the only ones telling you the truth. If you want somewhere to start, the two-minute cash check from last week beats another slow lap past their window.

So pick one of your own numbers this week and watch that one. Next time you catch yourself counting someone else’s cars, take it as your cue to go look at a figure you can actually do something about.

What’s the one rival you quietly keep score against — and what’s the one number of your own you’ll watch instead? Leave it in the comments. I’ll go first if it helps.